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Traffic potential vs volume: choose keywords that get clicks (Ahrefs)

Albin Hot
By Albin Hot
February 9, 20265 min read

Search volume is a starting point, not a decision. In 2026, many SERPs answer the query directly (ads, shopping, local packs, AI answers). That means: volume can look great while clicks are low.

Ahrefs helps because it shows Clicks, Clicks per search, and Traffic Potential, so you can pick keywords that actually send traffic.

Volume vs clicks: what is the real problem?

Volume = searches.

Clicks = actual clicks to results.

A SERP can "steal" clicks via:

  • Ads
  • Shopping blocks
  • Local packs
  • AI overview / answer boxes
  • Featured snippets / knowledge panels
  • People Also Ask
  • Video carousels
  • When clicks are low, ranking #1 can still bring less traffic than you expect.

    The metrics I use (and what they mean)

    In Ahrefs Keyword Explorer:

  • Volume: searches/month (estimate)
  • Clicks: estimated clicks from the SERP
  • CPS (Clicks per search): clicks divided by searches (0-1)
  • TP (Traffic Potential): estimated monthly organic traffic the #1 page can get from the broader topic (all keywords it ranks for)
  • Supporting signals:

  • KD: difficulty signal (Ahrefs metric)
  • CPC: commercial intent signal
  • Parent topic: helps cluster keywords to one main page
  • Important: none of these are exact. Use them to compare and to avoid bad bets.

    My 7-step workflow to pick keywords with real traffic

    Step 0 - Lock the market and intent

  • Choose country/language.
  • Decide the page type: guide vs comparison vs product/category vs local service page.
  • If intent and page type are wrong, metrics do not save you.

    Step 1 - Check Volume vs Clicks

    Compare:

  • Clicks close to Volume => clicky SERP
  • Clicks far below Volume => noisy SERP / instant answers
  • Shortcut: CPS

  • CPS ~0.7-1.0 => most searches lead to clicks
  • CPS ~0.2-0.4 => many searches do not click
  • Step 2 - Look at Traffic Potential (TP)

    TP tells you what the topic can do when you rank well, because top pages often rank for many long-tail variations.

    How I interpret it:

  • TP much higher than Volume => broad topic (great for guides)
  • TP close to Volume => narrow intent (often model/product queries)
  • Step 3 - Check the SERP reality

    Open the SERP overview and check:

  • Which page types rank (blog, category, product, tool)?
  • Which SERP features appear?
  • Are the top results stable brands?
  • If the SERP is dominated by shopping/local/AI answers, volume will overpromise.

    Step 4 - Inspect the top 3 pages

    Open the top 3 URLs:

  • Estimated traffic per page
  • How many keywords drive it (distribution)
  • Backlinks/referring domains (rough competition)
  • Content depth and freshness
  • If the #1 page gets most traffic from many long-tail keywords, that is strong topic potential.

    Step 5 - Decide: create, update, or skip

    Bucket each keyword/topic:

  • Create: no page exists, intent fits, TP/clicks make sense
  • Update: a page exists but underperforms (often positions 4-20)
  • Skip: wrong intent, SERP too noisy, KD too high, low business value
  • Step 6 - Build a small cluster, not a random list

    For one topic:

  • 1 hub page (main intent)
  • 3-8 supporting pages (sub-questions)
  • Internal links both ways
  • Avoid cannibalization: one primary intent per page.

    Step 7 - Measure and iterate

    Use Search Console for truth:

  • Impressions: are you being shown?
  • Clicks: are you earning them?
  • CTR: is the snippet working?
  • In Ahrefs:

  • Track rankings and estimate trends
  • Monitor competitors
  • Two practical examples

    Example 1: high volume, low clicks

  • Volume: high
  • Clicks: low
  • CPS: low
  • Likely: heavy SERP features or instant answer. Target it only if business value is huge and you can realistically win.

    Example 2: lower volume, high clicks

  • Volume: medium
  • Clicks: close to volume
  • CPS: high
  • Often: clean SERP and clear intent. Great for early wins and reliable traffic.

    For new websites: safer keyword selection

    If your site rarely ranks in the top 100:

  • Prefer long-tail keywords with clear intent
  • Lower KD
  • Higher CPS (people actually click)
  • SERPs without heavy ads/shopping
  • Then use internal links to build authority for bigger topics.

    Common mistakes

  • Choosing by volume only
  • Ignoring SERP features and intent
  • Treating KD as a rule, not a signal
  • Creating multiple pages for one intent (cannibalization)
  • Not connecting keyword picks to conversions
  • Mini scoring (optional)

    If you need a simple decision score:

  • Opportunity = (Clicks or TP) * business_value / difficulty
  • Keep business_value as High/Medium/Low. This forces you to pick keywords that matter.

    Checklist

  • Market set (country/language/device)
  • Intent and page type decided
  • Volume, Clicks, CPS checked
  • TP checked and top pages inspected
  • SERP features reviewed
  • Decision made (create/update/skip)
  • Cluster and internal links planned
  • Measurement plan (GSC + GA4)
  • Albin Hot

    Albin Hot

    Albin Hot is Senior SEO Specialist bij Niblah, een toonaangevend marketing platform voor zoekmachines, AI en meer. Hij werkt al meer dan 5 jaar in SEO en specialiseert zich in omzetgedreven strategieën in nauwe samenwerking met multidisciplinaire teams.

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